Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Lyoto Machida is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Derek Brunson has lost 86% of fights by KO.
- Lyoto Machida has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Derek BrunsonL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 20W
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 21W
SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 21L
KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 22L
KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Mar 23 Lyoto MachidaW2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs CB Dollaway · Dec 14L
SUBvs Luke Rockhold · Apr 15L
KOvs Yoel Romero · Jun 15W
KOvs Vitor Belfort · May 18 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Derek BrunsonMetricLyoto Machida
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.46evenly matched on net striking+1.02
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Derek BrunsonLyoto Machida
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Derek Brunson(10 fights)Lyoto Machida(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -36.8|Blue +36.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -714.0|Blue +714.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Derek BrunsonTargetLyoto Machida
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Derek Brunson edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:03
Knockdowns1
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
