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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Bryan Caraway won · S-DEC R3

Elo1524

Elo1369

Aljamain SterlingvsBryan CarawayUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · Sunday, May 29, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Bryan Caraway won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAljamain Sterling: WrestlervsBryan Caraway: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Aljamain Sterling wins(72.5%)

Actual result: Bryan Caraway wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aljamain Sterling at -310 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bryan Caraway has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Aljamain Sterling

Red Corner

Bryan Caraway

Blue Corner

-310

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+255

(28%)

1524

Elo

1369

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aljamain SterlingW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Aug 23

vs Calvin Kattar · Apr 24

vs Movsar Evloev · Dec 24

vs Brian Ortega · Aug 25

DECvs Youssef Zalal · Apr 26

latest

Bryan CarawayL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Erik Perez · Jun 14

vs Raphael Assuncao · Oct 14

vs Eddie Wineland · Jul 15

vs Cody Stamann · Mar 18

KOvs Pedro Munhoz · Nov 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aljamain SterlingMetricBryan Caraway

4.26

Strikes / min

2.53

2.15

Strikes absorbed / min

3.61

59%

Strike defense

54%

2.54

TDs / 15 min

2.57

44%

Takedown defense

80%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.11Δ 3.19 — meaningful gap-1.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Aljamain SterlingBryan Caraway

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Aljamain Sterling(10 fights)Bryan Caraway(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +155.2|Blue -155.2

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -138.0|Blue +138.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aljamain SterlingTargetBryan Caraway

By target zone

26% acc · 28%

Head

29% acc · 89%

78% acc · 44%

Body

33% acc · 11%

75% acc · 28%

Leg

By position

44% acc · 69%

Distance

30% acc · 100%

78% acc · 22%

Clinch

0% acc

60% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Aljamain Sterling rounds

even

Bryan Caraway rounds

Round 1Aljamain Sterling edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control3:40

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Aljamain Sterling edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:11

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:42Control

Round 3Bryan Caraway edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

2Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:52Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 64

Sig Strikes

9 / 31

50%

Sig Str %

26.7%

56 / 91

Total Strikes

69 / 96

1 / 3

TDs

3 / 6

25%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

3:51

Ctrl Time

6:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Bryan Caraway	1 / 4	28 / 31	0 / 0	0
1	Aljamain Sterling	7 / 20	28 / 41	1 / 2	2
2	Bryan Caraway	6 / 18	26 / 42	1 / 2	0
2	Aljamain Sterling	19 / 34	21 / 37	0 / 1	0
3	Bryan Caraway	2 / 9	15 / 23	2 / 4	0
3	Aljamain Sterling	6 / 10	7 / 13	0 / 0	0

Aljamain Sterling

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights23

Bryan Caraway

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights10