Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matt Sayles threatens submissions; Jordan Leavitt has lost 75% of fights by sub.
- Matt Sayles has 51pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Jordan Leavitt (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jordan Leavitt
oldest →W
KOvs Victor Martinez · Feb 23L
SUBvs Chase Hooper · Nov 23W
SUBvs Kurt Holobaugh · May 25W
vs Yadier del Valle · Feb 26L
SUBvs Joanderson Brito · Jun 26 Matt Sayles
oldest →L
vs Sheymon Moraes · Aug 18W
SUBvs Kyle Nelson · May 19L
SUBvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 19 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jordan LeavittMetricMatt Sayles
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.62Δ 1.40 — meaningful gap+2.02
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Jordan LeavittMatt Sayles
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jordan Leavitt(10 fights)Matt Sayles(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +92.0|Blue -92.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.4|Blue +1.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -546.0|Blue +546.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Jordan LeavittTargetMatt Sayles
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Jordan Leavitt edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns1
Control2:44
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:38Control
Round 2Matt Sayles edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:04
9Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:36Control
