Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Stefan Struve won · Decision R3
Elo1391
Stefan Struve
Elo1355

Stefan StruvevsMinotauro NogueiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia · Saturday, August 1, 2015Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Stefan Struve won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Minotauro Nogueira wins(57.4%)

Actual result: Stefan Struve wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Minotauro Nogueira at +155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Minotauro Nogueira is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Stefan Struve has lost 70% of fights by KO.
  • Stefan Struve threatens submissions; Minotauro Nogueira has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Stefan Struve has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Stefan Struve
Red Corner
VS
Minotauro Nogueira
Blue Corner
-175
(64%)
Vegas Odds
+155
(39%)
1391
Elo
1355
38
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'11"
Height
6'3"
213.36 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stefan StruveL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Andrei Arlovski · Mar 18
L
vs Marcin Tybura · Jul 18
W
SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Feb 19
L
KOvs Ben Rothwell · Dec 19
L
KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Oct 20
latest
Minotauro NogueiraL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Brendan Schaub · Aug 11
L
SUBvs Frank Mir · Dec 11
W
SUBvs Dave Herman · Oct 12
L
SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jun 13
L
KOvs Roy Nelson · Apr 14
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stefan StruveMetricMinotauro Nogueira
3.12
Strikes / min
—
4.04
Strikes absorbed / min
—
46%
Strike defense
—
0.56
TDs / 15 min
—
55%
Takedown defense
—
1.70
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1524 vs 1488Strikes18.9 vs 20.5Takedowns0.2 vs 0.7Sub Atts1.36 vs 1.00Form-0.6 vs -0.7
Stefan StruveMinotauro Nogueira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Stefan Struve(10 fights)Minotauro Nogueira(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +35.5|Blue -35.5
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red -246.0|Blue +246.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Stefan Struve

StanceOrthodox
Height83.0"
Reach84.0"
Fights20

Minotauro Nogueira

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights4