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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Karine Silva won · U-DEC R3

Elo1487

Elo1495

Ariane da SilvavsKarine SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · Saturday, April 27, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Karine Silva won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAriane da Silva: Pressure fightervsKarine Silva: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Karine Silva wins(70.1%)

Actual result: Karine Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Karine Silva threatens submissions; Ariane da Silva has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Ariane da Silva has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ariane da Silva

Red Corner

Karine Silva

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1487

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

170.18 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ariane da SilvaL2 streak

oldest →

vs JJ Aldrich · Mar 23

vs Melissa Gatto · Jul 23

SUBvs Casey O'Neill · Dec 23

SUBvs Jasmine Jasudavicius · Nov 24

vs Wang Cong · Jun 25

latest

Karine SilvaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Maryna Moroz · Aug 23

vs Viviane Araujo · Nov 24

vs Dione Barbosa · Aug 25

vs Maycee Barber · Dec 25

DECvs Jasmine Jasudavicius · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ariane da SilvaMetricKarine Silva

4.05

Strikes / min

2.24

4.40

Strikes absorbed / min

2.74

50%

Strike defense

52%

0.47

TDs / 15 min

1.93

68%

Takedown defense

26%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.35evenly matched on net striking-0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ariane da SilvaKarine Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ariane da Silva(6 fights)Karine Silva(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -8.5|Blue +8.5

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Layoff

Red -119.0|Blue +119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ariane da SilvaTargetKarine Silva

By target zone

32% acc · 29%

Head

28% acc · 30%

76% acc · 52%

Body

28% acc · 33%

53% acc · 19%

Leg

71% acc · 37%

By position

47% acc · 74%

Distance

32% acc · 78%

73% acc · 19%

Clinch

50% acc · 7%

75% acc · 7%

Ground

67% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ariane da Silva rounds

even

Karine Silva rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control1:43

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:58Control

Round 2Karine Silva edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:39Control

Round 3Ariane da Silva edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:23

13Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:55Control

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 81

Sig Strikes

27 / 75

51.7%

Sig Str %

35.7%

89 / 153

Total Strikes

53 / 120

0 / 0

TDs

5 / 6

—

TD %

88.7%

Sub Att

Rev

2:06

Ctrl Time

7:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Karine Silva	4 / 17	15 / 39	1 / 1
1	Ariane da Silva	7 / 13	20 / 38	0 / 0
2	Karine Silva	10 / 20	23 / 39	2 / 2
2	Ariane da Silva	9 / 18	22 / 40	0 / 0
3	Karine Silva	13 / 38	15 / 42	2 / 3
3	Ariane da Silva	26 / 50	47 / 75	0 / 0

Ariane da Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights6

Karine Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights7