Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Melquizael Costa has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Melquizael Costa (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Melquizael Costa
oldest →W
vs Christian Rodriguez · Mar 25W
vs Julian Erosa · May 25W
KOvs Morgan Charriere · Dec 25L
DECvs Arnold Allen · May 26 Shayilan Nuerdanbieke
oldest →L
vs Josh Culibao · May 21W
vs Sean Soriano · Nov 21W
KOvs Darrick Minner · Nov 22L
KOvs Steve Garcia · Apr 23 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Melquizael CostaMetricShayilan Nuerdanbieke
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.41Δ 2.10 — meaningful gap-0.69
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Melquizael CostaShayilan Nuerdanbieke
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Melquizael Costa(10 fights)Shayilan Nuerdanbieke(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +66.2|Blue -66.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -245.0|Blue +245.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Melquizael CostaTargetShayilan Nuerdanbieke
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
1
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke rounds
Round 1Shayilan Nuerdanbieke edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:28
1Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
3:52Control
Round 2Melquizael Costa edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns2
Control1:41
3Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:34Control
Round 3Melquizael Costa edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:51
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
