Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafaello Oliveira has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Erik Koch has 70pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Erik Koch (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafaello Oliveira
oldest →L
vs Andre Winner · Mar 10L
SUBvs Gleison Tibau · May 11L
KOvs Yves Edwards · Oct 11W
vs Yoislandy Izquierdo · Jul 12L
KOvs Edson Barboza · Jul 13 Erik Koch
oldest →L
KOvs Daron Cruickshank · May 14W
SUBvs Shane Campbell · May 16W
vs Kyle Stewart · Jul 19 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafaello OliveiraMetricErik Koch
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.19evenly matched on net striking-0.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Rafaello OliveiraErik Koch
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafaello Oliveira(6 fights)Erik Koch(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -138.9|Blue +138.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +56.0|Blue -56.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Rafaello OliveiraTargetErik Koch
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
0
Rafaello Oliveira rounds
Round 1Erik Koch edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:23Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
