Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Conor McGregor enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Chad Mendes is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Conor McGregor has lost 60% of fights by KO.
- Conor McGregor is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Chad Mendes has lost 80% of fights by KO.
- Chad Mendes has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Chad Mendes has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Conor McGregor (53.5%).
- Conor McGregor has a 20cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Chad Mendes
oldest →W
KOvs Ricardo Lamas · Apr 15L
KOvs Frankie Edgar · Dec 15W
KOvs Myles Jury · Jul 18L
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Dec 18 Conor McGregorL3 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Oct 18W
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Jan 20L
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jan 21L
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 21L
KOvs Max Holloway · Jul 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Chad MendesMetricConor McGregor
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.43evenly matched on net striking+0.66
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Chad MendesConor McGregor
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Chad Mendes(10 fights)Conor McGregor(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +17.3|Blue -17.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -76.0|Blue +76.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Chad MendesTargetConor McGregor
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Chad Mendes edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns3
Control1:45
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Conor McGregor edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns1
Control3:34
Knockdowns0
27Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
1Knockdowns
