Welterweight

3 Rounds

Alex Garcia won · S-DEC R3

Elo1358

Elo1368

Sean SpencervsAlex GarciaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler · Saturday, March 15, 2014Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Alex Garcia won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSean Spencer: Pressure fightervsAlex Garcia: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Sean Spencer wins(57.1%)

Actual result: Alex Garcia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sean Spencer at +290 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sean Spencer enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Sean Spencer (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Sean Spencer

Red Corner

Alex Garcia

Blue Corner

+290

(26%)

Vegas Odds

-320

(76%)

1358

Elo

1368

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

187.96 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sean SpencerL3 streak

oldest →

vs Drew Dober · Nov 13

vs Paulo Thiago · Sep 14

vs Cathal Pendred · Jan 15

KOvs Mike Pyle · Feb 16

SUBvs Yancy Medeiros · Sep 16

latest

Alex GarciaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mike Pyle · Dec 16

vs Tim Means · Jun 17

SUBvs Muslim Salikhov · Nov 17

vs Ryan LaFlare · Apr 18

vs Court McGee · Oct 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sean SpencerMetricAlex Garcia

4.24

Strikes / min

1.81

4.02

Strikes absorbed / min

3.03

60%

Strike defense

59%

0.14

TDs / 15 min

3.72

68%

Takedown defense

66%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.22Δ 1.44 — meaningful gap-1.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sean SpencerAlex Garcia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sean Spencer(8 fights)Alex Garcia(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -10.5|Blue +10.5

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +6.0|Blue -6.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sean SpencerTargetAlex Garcia

By target zone

32% acc · 72%

Head

42% acc · 87%

37% acc · 12%

Body

83% acc · 8%

100% acc · 16%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

35% acc · 84%

Distance

44% acc · 82%

43% acc · 16%

Clinch

55% acc · 18%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sean Spencer rounds

even

Alex Garcia rounds

Round 1Alex Garcia edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:04

15Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

1:24Control

Round 2Alex Garcia edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:19

Knockdowns0

33Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

1:33Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:36Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

58 / 160

Sig Strikes

61 / 135

35.3%

Sig Str %

44%

62 / 164

Total Strikes

66 / 142

0 / 0

TDs

8 / 11

—

TD %

72%

Sub Att

Rev

0:23

Ctrl Time

4:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alex Garcia	15 / 49	15 / 49	3 / 4
1	Sean Spencer	11 / 50	13 / 52	0 / 0
2	Alex Garcia	33 / 58	37 / 62	3 / 4
2	Sean Spencer	26 / 61	27 / 62	0 / 0
3	Alex Garcia	13 / 28	14 / 31	2 / 3
3	Sean Spencer	21 / 49	22 / 50	0 / 0

Sean Spencer

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights8

Alex Garcia

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10