Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Takeya MizugakiL2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Dominick Cruz · Sep 14L
SUBvs Aljamain Sterling · Apr 15L
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Aug 16L
KOvs Eddie Wineland · Dec 16 Bryan CarawayL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Raphael Assuncao · Oct 14W
vs Eddie Wineland · Jul 15W
vs Aljamain Sterling · May 16L
vs Cody Stamann · Mar 18L
KOvs Pedro Munhoz · Nov 18 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Takeya MizugakiMetricBryan Caraway
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.10Δ 1.18 — meaningful gap-1.08
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Takeya MizugakiBryan Caraway
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Takeya Mizugaki(10 fights)Bryan Caraway(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -10.3|Blue +10.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -112.0|Blue +112.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Takeya MizugakiTargetBryan Caraway
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Takeya Mizugaki edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control0:12
13Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:30Control
Round 2Bryan Caraway edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:00
7Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:54Control
Round 3Takeya Mizugaki edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control0:00
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:22Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
