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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Valter Walker won · SUB R1

Elo1576

Elo1482

Valter WalkervsLouie SutherlandUFC Prediction Result

UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · Saturday, October 25, 2025Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Valter Walker won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:24

Style matchupValter Walker: WrestlervsLouie Sutherland: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Valter Walker wins(75.5%)

Actual result: Valter Walker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Valter Walker at -405 American odds

+$25 profit

$125 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Valter Walker enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Valter Walker threatens submissions; Louie Sutherland has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Valter Walker has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Valter Walker

Red Corner

Louie Sutherland

Blue Corner

-405

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+320

(24%)

1576

Elo

1482

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'6"

Height

6'3"

198.12 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Valter WalkerW4 streak

oldest →

vs Lukasz Brzeski · Apr 24

SUBvs Junior Tafa · Aug 24

SUBvs Don'Tale Mayes · Feb 25

SUBvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Jul 25

SUBvs Thomas Petersen · Jul 26

latest

Louie Sutherland

oldest →

KOvs Brando Pericic · Mar 26

DECvs Tai Tuivasa · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Valter WalkerMetricLouie Sutherland

2.00

Strikes / min

1.81

2.85

Strikes absorbed / min

2.03

42%

Strike defense

30%

5.74

TDs / 15 min

4.95

Takedown defense

2.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.85evenly matched on net striking-0.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Valter WalkerLouie Sutherland

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Valter Walker(6 fights)Louie Sutherland(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +94.0|Blue -94.0

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Grappler Score

Red -48.9|Blue +48.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Valter WalkerTargetLouie Sutherland

By target zone

Head

100% acc · 33%

100% acc · 40%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 60%

Leg

100% acc · 67%

By position

100% acc · 100%

Distance

60% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Valter Walker rounds

even

Louie Sutherland rounds

Round 1Valter Walker edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control0:31

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 5

Sig Strikes

3 / 5

100%

Sig Str %

60%

7 / 7

Total Strikes

3 / 5

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:31

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Louie Sutherland	3 / 5	3 / 5	0 / 0	0
1	Valter Walker	5 / 5	7 / 7	1 / 1	1

Valter Walker

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights6

Louie Sutherland

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights2