Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Mitch Gagnon enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Mitch Gagnon threatens submissions; Dustin Kimura has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Dustin Kimura threatens submissions; Mitch Gagnon has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Mitch Gagnon has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Mitch Gagnon has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Mitch Gagnon (53.5%).
- Dustin Kimura has a 15cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mitch GagnonL3 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Roman Salazar · Oct 14L
SUBvs Renan Barao · Dec 14L
vs Matthew Lopez · Dec 16 Dustin KimuraL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Chico Camus · Feb 13W
SUBvs Jon Delos Reyes · Jan 14L
vs Henry Cejudo · Dec 14 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mitch GagnonMetricDustin Kimura
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.55Δ 3.04 — meaningful gap-2.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Mitch GagnonDustin Kimura
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mitch Gagnon(8 fights)Dustin Kimura(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +18.6|Blue -18.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +133.0|Blue -133.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Mitch GagnonTargetDustin Kimura
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Mitch Gagnon edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns1
Control0:41
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:11Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
