Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alexander Hernandez
oldest →W
vs Austin Hubbard · Oct 24W
vs Kurt Holobaugh · Mar 25W
KOvs Chase Hooper · Aug 25W
KOvs Diego Ferreira · Sep 25L
DECvs Rafa Garcia · Apr 26 Renato Moicano
oldest →W
KOvs Jalin Turner · Apr 24W
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 24L
SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 25L
vs Beneil Dariush · Jun 25W
SUBvs Chris Duncan · Apr 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alexander HernandezMetricRenato Moicano
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.22evenly matched on net striking+0.55
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Alexander HernandezRenato Moicano
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alexander Hernandez(10 fights)Renato Moicano(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.7|Blue +1.7
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -98.0|Blue +98.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Alexander HernandezTargetRenato Moicano
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
1
Alexander Hernandez rounds
Round 1Alexander Hernandez edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns0
Control0:05
10Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:31Control
Round 2Renato Moicano edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:00
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:12Control
