Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jake Collier enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Tom Aspinall has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tom Aspinall
oldest →L
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 22W
KOvs Marcin Tybura · Jul 23W
KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Nov 23W
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 24 Jake CollierL4 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Chase Sherman · Jan 22L
vs Andrei Arlovski · Apr 22L
KOvs Chris Barnett · Sep 22L
vs Martin Buday · Apr 23L
vs Mohammed Usman · Sep 23 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tom AspinallMetricJake Collier
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+4.01Δ 3.29 — meaningful gap+0.72
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Tom AspinallJake Collier
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tom Aspinall(9 fights)Jake Collier(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +42.3|Blue -42.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +48.3|Blue -48.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +49.7|Blue -49.7
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Tom AspinallTargetJake Collier
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Tom Aspinall edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns1
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
