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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Jailton Almeida won · SUB R1

Elo1502

Elo1508

Jairzinho RozenstruikvsJailton AlmeidaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · Saturday, May 13, 2023Charlotte, North Carolina, USA

Official fight result

Jailton Almeida won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:43

Style matchupJairzinho Rozenstruik: StrikervsJailton Almeida: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Jailton Almeida wins(84.1%)

Actual result: Jailton Almeida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jailton Almeida at -510 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Red Corner

Jailton Almeida

Blue Corner

+390

(20%)

Vegas Odds

-510

(84%)

1502

Elo

1508

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

198.12 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

oldest →

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Jun 22

KOvs Chris Daukaus · Dec 22

KOvs Shamil Gaziev · Mar 24

vs Tai Tuivasa · Aug 24

vs Sergei Pavlovich · Feb 25

latest

Jailton AlmeidaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Mar 24

SUBvs Alexandr Romanov · Jun 24

KOvs Serghei Spivac · Jan 25

vs Alexander Volkov · Oct 25

vs Rizvan Kuniev · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jairzinho RozenstruikMetricJailton Almeida

3.48

Strikes / min

2.23

2.63

Strikes absorbed / min

1.30

52%

Strike defense

43%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

5.64

72%

Takedown defense

60%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85evenly matched on net striking+0.93

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jairzinho RozenstruikJailton Almeida

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jairzinho Rozenstruik(10 fights)Jailton Almeida(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -5.7|Blue +5.7

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jairzinho RozenstruikTargetJailton Almeida

By target zone

0% acc

Head

60% acc · 75%

Body

50% acc · 25%

Leg

By position

0% acc

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

Ground

80% acc · 100%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik rounds

even

Jailton Almeida rounds

Round 1Jailton Almeida edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:09Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0 / 2

Sig Strikes

4 / 7

Sig Str %

57%

3 / 6

Total Strikes

14 / 19

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

3:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jailton Almeida	4 / 7	14 / 19	1 / 2	1
1	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	0 / 2	3 / 6	0 / 0	0

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15

Jailton Almeida

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights11