Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Flyweight
3 Rounds
John Dodson won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1493
John Dodson
Elo1355

John DodsonvsDarrell MontagueUFC Prediction Result

UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 · Saturday, October 19, 2013Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

John Dodson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:13

Model Prediction: John Dodson wins(66.4%)

Actual result: John Dodson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Dodson at -400 American odds

+$25 profit

$125 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • John Dodson is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Darrell Montague has lost 67% of fights by KO.
  • John Dodson has 49pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Darrell Montague (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

John Dodson
Red Corner
VS
Darrell Montague
Blue Corner
-400
(80%)
Vegas Odds
+355
(22%)
1493
Elo
1355
41
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'3"
Height
5'6"
167.64 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Dodson
oldest →
W
vs Pedro Munhoz · Mar 18
L
vs Jimmie Rivera · Sep 18
L
vs Petr Yan · Feb 19
W
KOvs Nathaniel Wood · Feb 20
L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 20
latest
Darrell MontagueL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Kyoji Horiguchi · May 14
L
KOvs Willie Gates · Jul 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John DodsonMetricDarrell Montague
3.20
Strikes / min
1.92
3.58
Strikes absorbed / min
5.38
61%
Strike defense
52%
0.71
TDs / 15 min
0.72
82%
Takedown defense
33%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.38Δ 3.08 — meaningful gap-3.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1530 vs 1500Strikes44.3 vs —Takedowns0.8 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form0.2 vs 0.0
John DodsonDarrell Montague

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
John Dodson(10 fights)Darrell Montague(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +137.6|Blue -137.6
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red -48.5|Blue +48.5
Grappler Score
Red -49.9|Blue +49.9
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John DodsonTargetDarrell Montague

By target zone

20
43% acc · 71%
Head
7
23% acc · 70%
6
86% acc · 21%
Body
0
0% acc
2
50% acc · 7%
Leg
3
60% acc · 30%

By position

16
37% acc · 57%
Distance
10
28% acc · 100%
10
83% acc · 36%
Clinch
0
0% acc
2
100% acc · 7%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
John Dodson rounds
0
even
0
Darrell Montague rounds
Round 1John Dodson edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns0
Control0:21
Knockdowns2
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2
KD
0
28 / 57
Sig Strikes
10 / 37
49%
Sig Str %
27%
29 / 58
Total Strikes
10 / 37
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 1
0%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:21
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Darrell Montague10 / 3710 / 370 / 10
1John Dodson28 / 5729 / 580 / 10

John Dodson

StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights17

Darrell Montague

StanceSouthpaw
Height66.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights3