Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Elves Brener has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Joel Alvarez has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Joel Alvarez
oldest →L
KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Feb 22W
SUBvs Marc Diakiese · Jul 23W
KOvs Drakkar Klose · Dec 24W
vs Vicente Luque · Oct 25L
SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · May 26 Elves BrenerL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Zubaira Tukhugov · Feb 23W
KOvs Guram Kutateladze · Jul 23W
KOvs Kaynan Kruschewsky · Nov 23L
vs Myktybek Orolbai · May 24L
vs Esteban Ribovics · Aug 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Joel AlvarezMetricElves Brener
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.50Δ 2.60 — meaningful gap-1.10
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Joel AlvarezElves Brener
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Joel Alvarez(10 fights)Elves Brener(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +26.3|Blue -26.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +287.0|Blue -287.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Joel AlvarezTargetElves Brener
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Joel Alvarez edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control0:48
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:17Control
Round 2Joel Alvarez edged it
Sig. strikes31
Takedowns0
Control0:00
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
Round 3Joel Alvarez edged it
Sig. strikes39
Takedowns0
Control0:03
Knockdowns1
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
