Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paul Craig enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Rodolfo Bellato is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Paul Craig has lost 55% of fights by KO.
- Rodolfo Bellato has 59pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paul CraigL4 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Andre Muniz · Jul 23L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23L
KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24L
KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25 Rodolfo Bellato
oldest →W
KOvs Ihor Potieria · Dec 23L
vs Navajo Stirling · Sep 25W
KOvs Luke Fernandez · Mar 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paul CraigMetricRodolfo Bellato
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.54evenly matched on net striking-0.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Paul CraigRodolfo Bellato
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paul Craig(10 fights)Rodolfo Bellato(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -42.3|Blue +42.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +84.0|Blue -84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Paul CraigTargetRodolfo Bellato
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Paul Craig edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:34
10Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:55Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
