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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Jon Jones won · SUB R1

Elo1511

Elo1531

Jon JonesvsCiryl GaneUFC Prediction Result

UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Saturday, March 4, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jon Jones won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:04

Style matchupJon Jones: Elusive strikervsCiryl Gane: Elusive striker

Two technical strikers — likely goes the distance with a close decision.

Model Prediction: Jon Jones wins(63.2%)

Actual result: Jon Jones wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jon Jones at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jon Jones enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Jon Jones has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jon Jones

Red Corner

Ciryl Gane

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1511

Elo

1531

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'4"

213.36 cm

Reach

205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jon JonesW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alexander Gustafsson · Dec 18

vs Anthony Smith · Mar 19

vs Thiago Santos · Jul 19

vs Dominick Reyes · Feb 20

KOvs Stipe Miocic · Nov 24

latest

Ciryl Gane

oldest →

KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Sep 22

KOvs Serghei Spivac · Sep 23

vs Alexander Volkov · Dec 24

vs Tom Aspinall · Oct 25

KOvs Alex Pereira · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jon JonesMetricCiryl Gane

4.38

Strikes / min

5.29

2.24

Strikes absorbed / min

2.33

64%

Strike defense

60%

1.89

TDs / 15 min

0.68

95%

Takedown defense

47%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.14evenly matched on net striking+2.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jon JonesCiryl Gane

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jon Jones(10 fights)Ciryl Gane(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -19.9|Blue +19.9

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +2.1|Blue -2.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +938.0|Blue -938.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jon JonesTargetCiryl Gane

By target zone

40% acc · 40%

Head

33% acc · 17%

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 33%

75% acc · 60%

Leg

100% acc · 50%

By position

50% acc · 100%

Distance

75% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jon Jones rounds

even

Ciryl Gane rounds

Round 1Jon Jones edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns2

Control0:57

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 10

Sig Strikes

6 / 8

50%

Sig Str %

75%

8 / 14

Total Strikes

7 / 9

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:57

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ciryl Gane	6 / 8	7 / 9	0 / 0	0
1	Jon Jones	5 / 10	8 / 14	2 / 2	1

Jon Jones

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach84.0"

Fights19

Ciryl Gane

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights13