Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alexander Yakovlev has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Alexander Yakovlev (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Joel Alvarez
oldest →W
SUBvs Marc Diakiese · Jul 23W
KOvs Elves Brener · Aug 24W
KOvs Drakkar Klose · Dec 24W
vs Vicente Luque · Oct 25L
SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · May 26 Alexander Yakovlev
oldest →W
KOvs George Sullivan · Jan 16L
vs Kamaru Usman · Jul 16L
SUBvs Zak Cummings · Nov 16W
SUBvs Alex Da Silva · Apr 19L
vs Roosevelt Roberts · Nov 19 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Joel AlvarezMetricAlexander Yakovlev
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.50Δ 2.17 — meaningful gap-0.67
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Joel AlvarezAlexander Yakovlev
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Joel Alvarez(10 fights)Alexander Yakovlev(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +123.1|Blue -123.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -252.0|Blue +252.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Joel AlvarezTargetAlexander Yakovlev
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
1
Alexander Yakovlev rounds
Round 1Alexander Yakovlev edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
1Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:57Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
