Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matthew Semelsberger enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Jake Matthews has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Matthew Semelsberger (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jake Matthews
oldest →W
vs Francisco Prado · Feb 25W
SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25W
DECvs Carlston Harris · May 26 Matthew SemelsbergerL5 streak
oldest →L
vs Jeremiah Wells · Apr 23L
KOvs Uros Medic · Jul 23L
vs Preston Parsons · Jan 24L
KOvs Charles Radtke · Nov 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jake MatthewsMetricMatthew Semelsberger
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.72Δ 1.19 — meaningful gap-0.47
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Jake MatthewsMatthew Semelsberger
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jake Matthews(10 fights)Matthew Semelsberger(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +35.0|Blue -35.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +49.0|Blue -49.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Jake MatthewsTargetMatthew Semelsberger
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
3
Matthew Semelsberger rounds
Round 1Matthew Semelsberger edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
18Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:46Control
1Knockdowns
Round 2Matthew Semelsberger edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
17Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:14Control
1Knockdowns
Round 3Matthew Semelsberger edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns1
Control1:42
Knockdowns0
10Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:16Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
