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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Denise Gomes won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1494

Elo1539

Elise ReedvsDenise GomesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · Saturday, May 17, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Denise Gomes won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:30

Style matchupElise Reed: StrikervsDenise Gomes: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Denise Gomes wins(78.5%)

Actual result: Denise Gomes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Denise Gomes at -590 American odds

+$17 profit

$117 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Denise Gomes enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Denise Gomes is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Elise Reed has lost 60% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Elise Reed

Red Corner

Denise Gomes

Blue Corner

+430

(19%)

Vegas Odds

-590

(86%)

1494

Elo

1539

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'2"

160.02 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Elise Reed

oldest →

vs Melissa Martinez · Sep 22

SUBvs Loma Lookboonmee · Feb 23

vs Jinh Yu Frey · Jun 23

SUBvs Loopy Godinez · Sep 23

vs Jessica Penne · Oct 24

latest

Denise GomesW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Yazmin Jauregui · Jul 23

vs Angela Hill · Nov 23

vs Eduarda Moura · Jun 24

vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Nov 24

vs Tecia Pennington · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Elise ReedMetricDenise Gomes

3.41

Strikes / min

4.43

3.26

Strikes absorbed / min

3.16

51%

Strike defense

51%

0.46

TDs / 15 min

1.45

53%

Takedown defense

66%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.15Δ 1.12 — meaningful gap+1.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elise ReedDenise Gomes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Elise Reed(9 fights)Denise Gomes(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -45.0|Blue +45.0

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Elise ReedTargetDenise Gomes

By target zone

33% acc · 45%

Head

62% acc · 64%

100% acc · 36%

Body

63% acc · 18%

100% acc · 18%

Leg

100% acc · 18%

By position

50% acc · 91%

Distance

55% acc · 39%

100% acc · 9%

Clinch

90% acc · 32%

Ground

67% acc · 29%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Elise Reed rounds

even

Denise Gomes rounds

Round 1Denise Gomes edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

4:05Control

Round 2Denise Gomes edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 21

Sig Strikes

28 / 42

51%

Sig Str %

66.5%

35 / 47

Total Strikes

69 / 86

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 3

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

4:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Denise Gomes	15 / 22	55 / 63	3 / 3
1	Elise Reed	9 / 17	33 / 43	0 / 0
2	Denise Gomes	13 / 20	14 / 23	0 / 0
2	Elise Reed	2 / 4	2 / 4	0 / 0

Elise Reed

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights9

Denise Gomes

StanceOrthodox

Height62.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights8