Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Julian Marquez enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Sam Alvey is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Julian Marquez has lost 80% of fights by KO.
- Sam Alvey has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Sam Alvey (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Sam AlveyL5 streak
oldest →L
vs Klidson Abreu · Jul 19L
vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22L
KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22 Julian MarquezL4 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Maki Pitolo · Feb 21L
KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Jun 22L
KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · Mar 23L
KOvs Zachary Reese · Jun 24L
KOvs Cody Brundage · Mar 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Sam AlveyMetricJulian Marquez
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.35evenly matched on net striking-0.29
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Sam AlveyJulian Marquez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Sam Alvey(10 fights)Julian Marquez(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -50.8|Blue +50.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.7|Blue +1.7
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +280.0|Blue -280.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Sam AlveyTargetJulian Marquez
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Julian Marquez edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:00
27Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Julian Marquez edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:05
Knockdowns0
34Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:16Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
