Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Henry Cejudo enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Henry Cejudo has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Chris Cariaso (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Chris CariasoL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Iliarde Santos · Oct 13W
vs Danny Martinez · Feb 14W
vs Louis Smolka · May 14L
SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Sep 14L
vs Sergio Pettis · Oct 15 Henry CejudoL4 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Dominick Cruz · May 20L
vs Aljamain Sterling · May 23L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Feb 24L
vs Payton Talbott · Dec 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Chris CariasoMetricHenry Cejudo
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.12Δ 1.13 — meaningful gap-0.01
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Chris CariasoHenry Cejudo
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Chris Cariaso(10 fights)Henry Cejudo(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -116.6|Blue +116.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +3.1|Blue -3.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +77.0|Blue -77.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Chris CariasoTargetHenry Cejudo
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Henry Cejudo edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:07
18Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
3:18Control
Round 2Henry Cejudo edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:21
13Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:49Control
Round 3Henry Cejudo edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:15
19Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
3:24Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
