Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Leon Edwards enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Kamaru Usman has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kamaru Usman (54.1%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Leon EdwardsL3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Kamaru Usman · Aug 22W
vs Colby Covington · Dec 23L
vs Belal Muhammad · Jul 24L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Mar 25L
KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 25 Kamaru Usman
oldest →W
vs Colby Covington · Nov 21L
KOvs Leon Edwards · Aug 22L
vs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 23W
vs Joaquin Buckley · Jun 25L
DECvs Dricus Du Plessis · Jul 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Leon EdwardsMetricKamaru Usman
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.16Δ 1.33 — meaningful gap+1.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Leon EdwardsKamaru Usman
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Leon Edwards(10 fights)Kamaru Usman(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -9.7|Blue +9.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Leon EdwardsTargetKamaru Usman
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Leon Edwards edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:00
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:19Control
Round 2Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:00
24Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:45Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:00
17Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:06Control
Round 4Leon Edwards edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control0:00
14Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:51Control
Round 5Even round
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns0
Control0:00
20Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:02Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
