Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jason MacDonald enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Jason MacDonald threatens submissions; Ryan Jensen has lost 100% of fights by sub.
- Ryan Jensen has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Jason MacDonald has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jason MacDonaldL3 streak
oldest →L
KOvs John Salter · May 10L
KOvs Alan Belcher · Sep 11L
KOvs Tom Lawlor · May 12 Ryan Jensen
oldest →W
SUBvs Jesse Forbes · May 10L
SUBvs Court McGee · Oct 10 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jason MacDonaldMetricRyan Jensen
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.15evenly matched on net striking-0.15
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Jason MacDonaldRyan Jensen
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jason MacDonald(4 fights)Ryan Jensen(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +168.0|Blue -168.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Jason MacDonaldTargetRyan Jensen
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:39
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:45Control
