Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- David Zawada enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- David Zawada threatens submissions; Abubakar Nurmagomedov has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Abubakar Nurmagomedov has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Abubakar Nurmagomedov has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Abubakar Nurmagomedov
oldest →W
vs Jared Gooden · Mar 21W
vs Gadzhi Omargadzhiev · Oct 22L
vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Jun 23 David ZawadaL4 streak
oldest →L
vs Danny Roberts · Jul 18L
KOvs Li Jingliang · Nov 18L
vs Ramazan Emeev · Jan 21 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Abubakar NurmagomedovMetricDavid Zawada
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.17evenly matched on net striking-0.70
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Abubakar NurmagomedovDavid Zawada
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Abubakar Nurmagomedov(4 fights)David Zawada(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +90.3|Blue -90.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +48.8|Blue -48.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +49.3|Blue -49.3
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Abubakar NurmagomedovTargetDavid Zawada
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
1
Abubakar Nurmagomedov rounds
Round 1Abubakar Nurmagomedov edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns1
Control1:50
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
