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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Kamaru Usman won · U-DEC R3

Elo1489

Elo1530

Kamaru UsmanvsSean StricklandUFC Prediction Result

UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · Saturday, April 8, 2017Buffalo, New York, USA

Official fight result

Kamaru Usman won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKamaru Usman: WrestlervsSean Strickland: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Kamaru Usman wins(65.6%)

Actual result: Kamaru Usman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kamaru Usman at -290 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kamaru Usman has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Kamaru Usman (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Kamaru Usman

Red Corner

Sean Strickland

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1489

Elo

1530

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

193.04 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kamaru Usman

oldest →

KOvs Leon Edwards · Aug 22

vs Leon Edwards · Mar 23

vs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 23

vs Joaquin Buckley · Jun 25

DECvs Dricus Du Plessis · Jul 26

latest

Sean StricklandW2 streak

oldest →

vs Dricus Du Plessis · Jan 24

vs Paulo Costa · Jun 24

vs Dricus Du Plessis · Feb 25

KOvs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 26

DECvs Khamzat Chimaev · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kamaru UsmanMetricSean Strickland

4.16

Strikes / min

5.98

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

4.53

55%

Strike defense

60%

2.79

TDs / 15 min

0.66

89%

Takedown defense

68%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.49evenly matched on net striking+1.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kamaru UsmanSean Strickland

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kamaru Usman(10 fights)Sean Strickland(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -40.8|Blue +40.8

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -168.0|Blue +168.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kamaru UsmanTargetSean Strickland

By target zone

41% acc · 54%

Head

25% acc · 93%

74% acc · 26%

Body

100% acc · 4%

90% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

42% acc · 50%

Distance

26% acc · 96%

60% acc · 7%

Clinch

50% acc · 4%

72% acc · 43%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kamaru Usman rounds

even

Sean Strickland rounds

Round 1Kamaru Usman edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control4:18

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Kamaru Usman edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control2:25

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Kamaru Usman edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns1

Control1:25

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

90 / 171

Sig Strikes

27 / 103

53.7%

Sig Str %

26%

117 / 200

Total Strikes

30 / 108

2 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

40%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:08

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sean Strickland	5 / 15	7 / 19	0 / 0
1	Kamaru Usman	24 / 37	37 / 50	1 / 5
2	Sean Strickland	5 / 34	6 / 35	0 / 0
2	Kamaru Usman	29 / 65	38 / 76	0 / 2
3	Sean Strickland	17 / 54	17 / 54	0 / 0
3	Kamaru Usman	37 / 69	42 / 74	1 / 1

Kamaru Usman

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights20

Sean Strickland

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights25