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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Joe Ellenberger won · S-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1359

Joe EllenbergervsJames MoontasriUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Marquardt · Saturday, June 28, 2014San Antonio, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Joe Ellenberger won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: James Moontasri wins(50.2%)

Actual result: Joe Ellenberger wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

James Moontasri at +166 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

James Moontasri has 79pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors James Moontasri (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Joe Ellenberger

Red Corner

James Moontasri

Blue Corner

-177

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+166

(38%)

1490

Elo

1359

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'9"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe Ellenberger

oldest →

KOvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 14

latest

James MoontasriL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Cody Pfister · Feb 15

SUBvs Kevin Lee · Jul 15

KOvs Anton Zafir · Nov 15

vs Alex Oliveira · Jul 16

vs Alex Morono · Dec 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe EllenbergerMetricJames Moontasri

1.62

Strikes / min

2.39

3.45

Strikes absorbed / min

3.86

48%

Strike defense

40%

3.17

TDs / 15 min

0.00

Takedown defense

79%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.83evenly matched on net striking-1.47

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joe Ellenberger(2 fights)James Moontasri(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +131.6|Blue -131.6

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joe EllenbergerTargetJames Moontasri

By target zone

55% acc · 77%

Head

49% acc · 89%

80% acc · 18%

Body

100% acc · 11%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

By position

35% acc · 27%

Distance

42% acc · 31%

80% acc · 18%

Clinch

50% acc · 3%

80% acc · 55%

Ground

59% acc · 66%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joe Ellenberger rounds

even

James Moontasri rounds

Round 1James Moontasri edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control1:26

Knockdowns0

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:25Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Joe Ellenberger edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns2

Control2:48

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:37Control

Round 3Joe Ellenberger edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control2:15

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 37

Sig Strikes

35 / 67

60%

Sig Str %

49.7%

50 / 73

Total Strikes

119 / 163

3 / 10

TDs

0 / 0

30.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:29

Ctrl Time

5:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	James Moontasri	27 / 50	64 / 90	0 / 0	0
1	Joe Ellenberger	7 / 13	7 / 13	0 / 3	0
2	James Moontasri	5 / 8	9 / 14	0 / 0	0
2	Joe Ellenberger	11 / 18	31 / 45	2 / 3	2
3	James Moontasri	3 / 9	46 / 59	0 / 0	0
3	Joe Ellenberger	4 / 6	12 / 15	1 / 4	0

Joe Ellenberger

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights2

James Moontasri

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6