← All fights/Event page

Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Piera Rodriguez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1527

Elo1509

Piera RodriguezvsSam HughesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Saturday, March 14, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Piera Rodriguez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupPiera Rodriguez: WrestlervsSam Hughes: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Piera Rodriguez wins(68.8%)

Actual result: Piera Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Piera Rodriguez at -152 American odds

+$66 profit

$166 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sam Hughes enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Piera Rodriguez has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Piera Rodriguez

Red Corner

Sam Hughes

Blue Corner

-152

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+128

(44%)

1527

Elo

1509

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'5"

160.02 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Piera RodriguezW2 streak

oldest →

vs Sam Hughes · Oct 22

SUBvs Gillian Robertson · Apr 23

vs Ariane Carnelossi · May 24

vs Josefine Knutsson · Dec 24

vs Ketlen Souza · Aug 25

latest

Sam HughesW3 streak

oldest →

vs Jaqueline Amorim · Apr 23

vs Yazmin Jauregui · Feb 24

vs Viktoriia Dudakova · Aug 24

vs Stephanie Luciano · Mar 25

SUBvs Shauna Bannon · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Piera RodriguezMetricSam Hughes

4.04

Strikes / min

4.41

3.13

Strikes absorbed / min

4.69

53%

Strike defense

58%

4.04

TDs / 15 min

1.12

81%

Takedown defense

63%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.91Δ 1.19 — meaningful gap-0.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Piera RodriguezSam Hughes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Piera Rodriguez(7 fights)Sam Hughes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +17.4|Blue -17.4

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Piera RodriguezTargetSam Hughes

By target zone

32% acc · 49%

Head

43% acc · 61%

82% acc · 42%

Body

76% acc · 17%

77% acc · 9%

Leg

100% acc · 22%

By position

38% acc · 67%

Distance

49% acc · 84%

81% acc · 32%

Clinch

100% acc · 16%

100% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Piera Rodriguez rounds

even

Sam Hughes rounds

Round 1Piera Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control1:04

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 2Piera Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns1

Control1:14

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Piera Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:17

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

107 / 231

Sig Strikes

77 / 144

46%

Sig Str %

56.3%

111 / 237

Total Strikes

91 / 160

1 / 6

TDs

0 / 7

33.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:35

Ctrl Time

0:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sam Hughes	33 / 43	37 / 47	0 / 4
1	Piera Rodriguez	40 / 85	41 / 87	0 / 3
2	Sam Hughes	22 / 37	27 / 44	0 / 2
2	Piera Rodriguez	30 / 63	32 / 66	1 / 1
3	Sam Hughes	22 / 64	27 / 69	0 / 1
3	Piera Rodriguez	37 / 83	38 / 84	0 / 2

Piera Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights7

Sam Hughes

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights12