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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Tatiana Suarez won · SUB R1

Elo1512

Elo1527

Alexa GrassovsTatiana SuarezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman · Saturday, May 19, 2018Santiago, Chile

Official fight result

Tatiana Suarez won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:44

Style matchupAlexa Grasso: Pressure fightervsTatiana Suarez: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Tatiana Suarez wins(76.4%)

Actual result: Tatiana Suarez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tatiana Suarez at -550 American odds

+$18 profit

$118 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexa Grasso has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Tatiana Suarez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alexa Grasso

Red Corner

Tatiana Suarez

Blue Corner

+425

(19%)

Vegas Odds

-550

(85%)

1512

Elo

1527

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'5"

Height

5'5"

167.64 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexa Grasso

oldest →

vs Viviane Araujo · Oct 22

SUBvs Valentina Shevchenko · Mar 23

vs Valentina Shevchenko · Sep 24

vs Natalia Silva · May 25

KOvs Maycee Barber · Mar 26

latest

Tatiana SuarezW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Montana De La Rosa · Feb 23

SUBvs Jessica Andrade · Aug 23

vs Zhang Weili · Feb 25

vs Amanda Lemos · Sep 25

SUBvs Loopy Godinez · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexa GrassoMetricTatiana Suarez

4.11

Strikes / min

2.86

3.71

Strikes absorbed / min

1.63

58%

Strike defense

44%

0.40

TDs / 15 min

4.52

54%

Takedown defense

57%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.40evenly matched on net striking+1.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexa GrassoTatiana Suarez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexa Grasso(10 fights)Tatiana Suarez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -14.9|Blue +14.9

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +2.1|Blue -2.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexa GrassoTargetTatiana Suarez

By target zone

80% acc · 67%

Head

14% acc · 50%

67% acc · 33%

Body

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 50%

By position

0% acc

Distance

13% acc · 50%

100% acc · 67%

Clinch

100% acc · 33%

Ground

100% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexa Grasso rounds

even

Tatiana Suarez rounds

Round 1Tatiana Suarez edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

2Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:41Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 8

Sig Strikes

2 / 9

75%

Sig Str %

22%

21 / 23

Total Strikes

4 / 11

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 3

—

TD %

66%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tatiana Suarez	2 / 9	4 / 11	2 / 3	1
1	Alexa Grasso	6 / 8	21 / 23	0 / 0	0

Alexa Grasso

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights14

Tatiana Suarez

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights9