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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Tommy McMillen won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1553

Elo1472

Tommy McMillenvsManolo ZecchiniUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · Saturday, April 4, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Tommy McMillen won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:57

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Tommy McMillen

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Tommy McMillen at -1408 American odds · hypothetical only

+$7 profit

$107 total returned

Style matchupTommy McMillen: Pressure fightervsManolo Zecchini: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Tommy McMillen wins(76.5%)

Actual result: Tommy McMillen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tommy McMillen is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Manolo Zecchini has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Tommy McMillen has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tommy McMillen has 83pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tommy McMillen has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tommy McMillen

Red Corner

Manolo Zecchini

Blue Corner

-1408

(93%)

Vegas Odds

+750

(12%)

1553

Elo

1472

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'8"

187.96 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 1 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tommy McMillen

oldest →

KOvs Alberto Montes · Jul 26

latest

Manolo Zecchini

oldest →

KOvs Morgan Charriere · Sep 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tommy McMillenMetricManolo Zecchini

9.87

Strikes / min

3.72

5.54

Strikes absorbed / min

12.82

58%

Strike defense

45%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

83%

Takedown defense

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+4.33Δ 13.43 — meaningful gap-9.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tommy McMillenManolo Zecchini

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tommy McMillen(2 fights)Manolo Zecchini(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +80.9|Blue -80.9

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.8|Blue -49.8

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tommy McMillenTargetManolo Zecchini

By target zone

52% acc · 69%

Head

29% acc · 70%

64% acc · 31%

Body

50% acc · 30%

Leg

0% acc

By position

55% acc · 84%

Distance

34% acc · 95%

56% acc · 12%

Clinch

20% acc · 5%

60% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tommy McMillen rounds

even

Manolo Zecchini rounds

Round 1Tommy McMillen edged it

Sig. strikes74

Takedowns0

Control0:06

Knockdowns1

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

74 / 134

Sig Strikes

20 / 61

55%

Sig Str %

32%

76 / 138

Total Strikes

21 / 64

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

0:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Manolo Zecchini	20 / 61	21 / 64	0 / 0	0
1	Tommy McMillen	74 / 134	76 / 138	0 / 0	0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Tommy McMillen

Odds

-1408

Market-implied probability

Tommy McMillen 89%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Tommy McMillen (model pick · research)$107

Manolo Zecchini$850

89% market-implied · model 91% (research) · vsklearn_gb_tuned_v2_20260514_122511

🔒 Pick locked May 14, 2026, 12:25 PM UTC · never rewritten

Tommy McMillen

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights2

Manolo Zecchini

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights2