Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Raphael Assuncao has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Erik Koch (53.5%).
- Erik Koch has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Erik Koch
oldest →L
KOvs Daron Cruickshank · May 14W
SUBvs Shane Campbell · May 16W
vs Kyle Stewart · Jul 19 Raphael Assuncao
oldest →L
vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 19L
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 20L
KOvs Ricky Simon · Dec 21W
vs Victor Henry · Oct 22L
SUBvs Davey Grant · Mar 23 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Erik KochMetricRaphael Assuncao
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.49Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap+0.72
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Erik Koch(10 fights)Raphael Assuncao(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -3.8|Blue +3.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Erik KochTargetRaphael Assuncao
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Erik Koch edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns1
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
