Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Flyweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Joshua Van won · KO/TKO R5
Elo1599
Elo1526
Tatsuro Taira

Joshua VanvsTatsuro TairaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · Saturday, May 9, 2026Newark, USA

Official fight result

Joshua Van won

KO/TKO · Round 5 · 1:32

Style matchupJoshua Van: Pressure fightervsTatsuro Taira: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Tatsuro Taira wins(52.0%)

Actual result: Joshua Van wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Joshua Van enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Joshua Van has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Joshua Van has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Tatsuro Taira has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Joshua Van
Red Corner
VS
Tatsuro Taira
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1599
Elo
1526
24
Age
26
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'7"
165.1 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joshua VanW5 streak
oldest →
W
vs Cody Durden · Dec 24
W
vs Rei Tsuruya · Mar 25
W
KOvs Bruno Silva · Jun 25
W
vs Brandon Royval · Jun 25
W
KOvs Alexandre Pantoja · Dec 25
latest
Tatsuro TairaW2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Carlos Hernandez · Dec 23
W
KOvs Alex Perez · Jun 24
L
vs Brandon Royval · Oct 24
W
SUBvs HyunSung Park · Aug 25
W
KOvs Brandon Moreno · Dec 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joshua VanMetricTatsuro Taira
8.43
Strikes / min
2.87
5.82
Strikes absorbed / min
3.10
58%
Strike defense
44%
0.82
TDs / 15 min
3.57
75%
Takedown defense
46%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.61Δ 2.84 — meaningful gap-0.23
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901520155015801610← oldermost recent →
Joshua Van(10 fights)Tatsuro Taira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +73.2|Blue -73.2
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Joshua Van

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights11

Tatsuro Taira

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10