Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tony Kelley is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Randy Costa has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Randy Costa has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Randy CostaL2 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Brandon Davis · Apr 19W
KOvs Boston Salmon · Oct 19W
KOvs Journey Newson · Sep 20L
KOvs Adrian Yanez · Jul 21L
SUBvs Guido Cannetti · Oct 22 Tony Kelley
oldest →L
KOvs Adrian Yanez · Jun 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Randy CostaMetricTony Kelley
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.05Δ 1.75 — meaningful gap+0.70
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Randy CostaTony Kelley
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Randy Costa(6 fights)Tony Kelley(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -59.1|Blue +59.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -287.0|Blue +287.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Randy CostaTargetTony Kelley
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Tony Kelley edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control1:28
35Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:43Control
Round 2Tony Kelley edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control1:01
47Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:43Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
