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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Max Griffin won · U-DEC R3

Elo1494

Elo1470

Carlos ConditvsMax GriffinUFC Prediction Result

UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · Saturday, July 10, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Max Griffin won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCarlos Condit: Elusive strikervsMax Griffin: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Max Griffin wins(61.2%)

Actual result: Max Griffin wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Max Griffin at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Max Griffin enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Max Griffin has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Carlos Condit

Red Corner

Max Griffin

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1494

Elo

1470

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carlos ConditW2 streak

oldest →

vs Neil Magny · Dec 17

SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Apr 18

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 18

vs Court McGee · Oct 20

vs Matt Brown · Jan 21

latest

Max GriffinL3 streak

oldest →

vs Michael Morales · Jul 23

vs Jeremiah Wells · Feb 24

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 24

vs Chris Curtis · Jul 25

DECvs Victor Valenzuela · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carlos ConditMetricMax Griffin

3.66

Strikes / min

3.70

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

3.69

55%

Strike defense

58%

0.59

TDs / 15 min

1.44

38%

Takedown defense

69%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.99evenly matched on net striking+0.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Carlos ConditMax Griffin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Carlos Condit(10 fights)Max Griffin(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +23.2|Blue -23.2

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carlos ConditTargetMax Griffin

By target zone

26% acc · 56%

Head

46% acc · 63%

57% acc · 27%

Body

55% acc · 6%

92% acc · 17%

Leg

90% acc · 30%

By position

35% acc · 97%

Distance

53% acc · 87%

67% acc · 3%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

Ground

63% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Carlos Condit rounds

even

Max Griffin rounds

Round 1Max Griffin edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 3Max Griffin edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:55Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

63 / 176

Sig Strikes

93 / 171

34.7%

Sig Str %

54.3%

66 / 179

Total Strikes

95 / 173

0 / 4

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Max Griffin	34 / 61	34 / 61	0 / 0
1	Carlos Condit	13 / 42	13 / 42	0 / 0
2	Max Griffin	29 / 48	30 / 49	0 / 0
2	Carlos Condit	28 / 68	28 / 68	0 / 2
3	Max Griffin	30 / 62	31 / 63	1 / 1
3	Carlos Condit	22 / 66	25 / 69	0 / 2

Carlos Condit

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17

Max Griffin

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19