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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Henry Cejudo won · U-DEC R3

Elo1472

Elo1354

Henry CejudovsDustin KimuraUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · Saturday, December 13, 2014Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Henry Cejudo won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupHenry Cejudo: Well-roundedvsDustin Kimura: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Dustin Kimura wins(68.7%)

Actual result: Henry Cejudo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dustin Kimura at +185 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Henry Cejudo enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Henry Cejudo has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Dustin Kimura has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Henry Cejudo

Red Corner

Dustin Kimura

Blue Corner

-225

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+185

(35%)

1472

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'7"

162.56 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Henry CejudoL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dominick Cruz · May 20

vs Aljamain Sterling · May 23

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Feb 24

vs Song Yadong · Feb 25

vs Payton Talbott · Dec 25

latest

Dustin Kimura

oldest →

SUBvs Chico Camus · Feb 13

SUBvs Mitch Gagnon · Sep 13

SUBvs Jon Delos Reyes · Jan 14

vs George Roop · Apr 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Henry CejudoMetricDustin Kimura

3.83

Strikes / min

1.33

3.84

Strikes absorbed / min

3.82

57%

Strike defense

51%

1.78

TDs / 15 min

0.93

72%

Takedown defense

50%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

2.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.01Δ 2.48 — meaningful gap-2.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Henry CejudoDustin Kimura

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Henry Cejudo(10 fights)Dustin Kimura(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +118.1|Blue -118.1

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +49.3|Blue -49.3

Grappler Score

Red +49.5|Blue -49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Henry CejudoTargetDustin Kimura

By target zone

39% acc · 60%

Head

11% acc · 64%

77% acc · 33%

Body

47% acc · 32%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

47% acc · 69%

Distance

15% acc · 96%

61% acc · 26%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

38% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Henry Cejudo rounds

even

Dustin Kimura rounds

Round 1Henry Cejudo edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:20

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Henry Cejudo edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Henry Cejudo edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

72 / 145

Sig Strikes

25 / 161

49.3%

Sig Str %

15.7%

76 / 149

Total Strikes

25 / 161

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:20

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dustin Kimura	6 / 31	6 / 31	0 / 1
1	Henry Cejudo	24 / 44	27 / 47	0 / 0
2	Dustin Kimura	6 / 58	6 / 58	0 / 0
2	Henry Cejudo	22 / 48	22 / 48	0 / 0
3	Dustin Kimura	13 / 72	13 / 72	0 / 0
3	Henry Cejudo	26 / 53	27 / 54	0 / 2

Henry Cejudo

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights16

Dustin Kimura

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights5