Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rogerio Nogueira is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Ryan Spann has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Rogerio Nogueira has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rogerio Nogueira (53.5%).
- Ryan Spann has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rogerio Nogueira
oldest →L
vs Mauricio Rua · Aug 15W
KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 16L
KOvs Ryan Bader · Nov 16L
vs Mauricio Rua · Jul 20 Ryan SpannW2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Apr 24W
SUBvs Ovince Saint Preux · Oct 24L
KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Mar 25W
SUBvs Lukasz Brzeski · Jul 25W
KOvs Marcus Buchecha · Apr 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rogerio NogueiraMetricRyan Spann
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.09evenly matched on net striking-0.81
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Rogerio NogueiraRyan Spann
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rogerio Nogueira(10 fights)Ryan Spann(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -132.0|Blue +132.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.5|Blue -1.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Rogerio NogueiraTargetRyan Spann
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Ryan Spann edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
13Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:44Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
