Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Josh Thomson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Josh Thomson has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Nate Diaz (53.5%).
- Nate Diaz has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Nate Diaz
oldest →L
vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16W
vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19L
vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22 Josh ThomsonL3 streak
oldest →L
vs Benson Henderson · Jan 14L
vs Tony Ferguson · Jul 15 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Nate DiazMetricJosh Thomson
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.80evenly matched on net striking+0.47
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Nate DiazJosh Thomson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Nate Diaz(10 fights)Josh Thomson(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +141.3|Blue -141.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -47.9|Blue +47.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Nate DiazTargetJosh Thomson
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Josh Thomson edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:25
15Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:23Control
Round 2Josh Thomson edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control0:30
Knockdowns0
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:59Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
