Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Chris Lytle has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Dan Hardy has a 15cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Dan HardyW2 streak
oldest →L
vs Georges St-Pierre · Mar 10L
KOvs Carlos Condit · Oct 10L
vs Anthony Johnson · Mar 11W
KOvs Duane Ludwig · May 12W
vs Amir Sadollah · Sep 12 Chris Lytle
oldest →W
SUBvs Matt Brown · Jul 10L
vs Brian Ebersole · Feb 11 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Dan HardyMetricChris Lytle
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.98Δ 1.71 — meaningful gap+0.73
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Dan HardyChris Lytle
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Dan Hardy(6 fights)Chris Lytle(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.1|Blue +1.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -28.0|Blue +28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Dan HardyTargetChris Lytle
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Chris Lytle edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:00
42Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Chris Lytle edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control0:04
51Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:10Control
Round 3Chris Lytle edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns1
Control0:03
34Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:10Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
