Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Chad Mendes has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Chad Mendes has 44pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Darren Elkins has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Chad Mendes
oldest →W
KOvs Ricardo Lamas · Apr 15L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 15L
KOvs Frankie Edgar · Dec 15W
KOvs Myles Jury · Jul 18L
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Dec 18 Darren Elkins
oldest →W
vs Tristan Connelly · Apr 22L
vs Jonathan Pearce · Dec 22W
vs Daniel Pineda · Oct 24L
KOvs Julian Erosa · Apr 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Chad MendesMetricDarren Elkins
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.43evenly matched on net striking+0.06
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Chad MendesDarren Elkins
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Chad Mendes(10 fights)Darren Elkins(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -8.1|Blue +8.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +92.0|Blue -92.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Chad MendesTargetDarren Elkins
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Chad Mendes edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:03
Knockdowns1
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
