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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Leonardo Santos won · U-DEC R3

Elo1433

Elo1357

Leonardo SantosvsEfrain EscuderoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski · Saturday, September 13, 2014Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil

Official fight result

Leonardo Santos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupLeonardo Santos: Well-roundedvsEfrain Escudero: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Leonardo Santos wins(61.9%)

Actual result: Leonardo Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Leonardo Santos at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Leonardo Santos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Leonardo Santos has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Leonardo Santos has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Leonardo Santos

Red Corner

Efrain Escudero

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1433

Elo

1357

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'9"

190.5 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Leonardo SantosL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Stevie Ray · Jun 19

vs Roman Bogatov · Jul 20

KOvs Grant Dawson · Mar 21

SUBvs Clay Guida · Dec 21

vs Jared Gordon · Aug 22

latest

Efrain EscuderoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Mac Danzig · Apr 12

vs Rodrigo de Lima · Feb 15

SUBvs Drew Dober · Jun 15

vs Leandro Silva · Nov 15

vs Kevin Lee · Apr 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Leonardo SantosMetricEfrain Escudero

2.82

Strikes / min

2.92

3.40

Strikes absorbed / min

2.30

54%

Strike defense

63%

0.88

TDs / 15 min

1.31

86%

Takedown defense

66%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.58Δ 1.20 — meaningful gap+0.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Leonardo SantosEfrain Escudero

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Leonardo Santos(10 fights)Efrain Escudero(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +76.3|Blue -76.3

Recent Form

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Striker Score

Red -1.7|Blue +1.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -413.0|Blue +413.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Leonardo SantosTargetEfrain Escudero

By target zone

31% acc · 64%

Head

34% acc · 63%

41% acc · 19%

Body

55% acc · 14%

100% acc · 17%

Leg

100% acc · 23%

By position

25% acc · 56%

Distance

40% acc · 86%

33% acc · 3%

Clinch

80% acc · 9%

94% acc · 42%

Ground

50% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Leonardo Santos rounds

even

Efrain Escudero rounds

Round 1Leonardo Santos edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control3:49

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2Efrain Escudero edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns0

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:46Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Leonardo Santos edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control3:04

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 98

Sig Strikes

43 / 101

39%

Sig Str %

39%

66 / 132

Total Strikes

77 / 143

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

66.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:55

Ctrl Time

0:50

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Efrain Escudero	8 / 17	26 / 38	0 / 0
1	Leonardo Santos	13 / 22	32 / 43	1 / 1
2	Efrain Escudero	30 / 62	34 / 67	0 / 0
2	Leonardo Santos	8 / 34	8 / 34	0 / 2
3	Efrain Escudero	5 / 22	17 / 38	0 / 0
3	Leonardo Santos	15 / 42	26 / 55	1 / 1

Leonardo Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10

Efrain Escudero

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights9