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Flyweight
3 Rounds
Alexandre Pantoja won · SUB R1
Elo1523
Elo1498
Alex Perez

Alexandre PantojavsAlex PerezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · Saturday, July 30, 2022Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Alexandre Pantoja won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:31

Style matchupAlexandre Pantoja: WrestlervsAlex Perez: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Alex Perez wins(52.6%)

Actual result: Alexandre Pantoja wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Perez at +165 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Alexandre Pantoja threatens submissions; Alex Perez has lost 43% of fights by sub.
  • Alex Perez has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Alexandre Pantoja
Red Corner
VS
Alex Perez
Blue Corner
-195
(66%)
Vegas Odds
+165
(38%)
1523
Elo
1498
36
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'6"
170.18 cm
Reach
165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexandre Pantoja
oldest →
W
vs Brandon Royval · Dec 23
W
vs Steve Erceg · May 24
W
SUBvs Kai Asakura · Dec 24
W
SUBvs Kai Kara-France · Jun 25
L
KOvs Joshua Van · Dec 25
latest
Alex Perez
oldest →
W
KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Apr 24
L
KOvs Tatsuro Taira · Jun 24
L
SUBvs Asu Almabayev · Nov 25
W
KOvs Charles Johnson · Jan 26
L
vs Sumudaerji · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexandre PantojaMetricAlex Perez
4.38
Strikes / min
4.41
3.88
Strikes absorbed / min
3.20
49%
Strike defense
59%
2.79
TDs / 15 min
2.21
69%
Takedown defense
75%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.50evenly matched on net striking+1.21

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1570 vs 1562Strikes4.4 vs 4.2Takedowns2.6 vs 2.0Sub Atts0.80 vs 0.80Form0.6 vs 0.1
Alexandre PantojaAlex Perez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701490151015301550← oldermost recent →
Alexandre Pantoja(10 fights)Alex Perez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +24.5|Blue -24.5
Recent Form
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red -273.0|Blue +273.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexandre PantojaTargetAlex Perez

By target zone

7
64% acc · 88%
Head
9
69% acc · 90%
1
100% acc · 13%
Body
0
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 10%

By position

7
64% acc · 88%
Distance
10
77% acc · 100%
1
100% acc · 13%
Clinch
0
0% acc
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Alexandre Pantoja rounds
0
even
0
Alex Perez rounds
Round 1Alexandre Pantoja edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns1
Control1:06
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
8 / 12
Sig Strikes
10 / 14
66%
Sig Str %
71%
8 / 12
Total Strikes
10 / 14
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 1
100%
TD %
0%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:06
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Alex Perez10 / 1410 / 140 / 10
1Alexandre Pantoja8 / 128 / 121 / 11

Alexandre Pantoja

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights18

Alex Perez

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights16