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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Jon Jones won · S-DEC R5

Elo1511

Elo1432

Jon JonesvsThiago SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · Saturday, July 6, 2019Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jon Jones won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupJon Jones: Elusive strikervsThiago Santos: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Jon Jones wins(82.3%)

Actual result: Jon Jones wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jon Jones at -670 American odds

+$15 profit

$115 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jon Jones enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Jon Jones has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jon Jones has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Jon Jones has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jon Jones

Red Corner

Thiago Santos

Blue Corner

-670

(87%)

Vegas Odds

+485

(17%)

1511

Elo

1432

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'2"

213.36 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jon JonesW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alexander Gustafsson · Dec 18

vs Anthony Smith · Mar 19

vs Dominick Reyes · Feb 20

SUBvs Ciryl Gane · Mar 23

KOvs Stipe Miocic · Nov 24

latest

Thiago SantosL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Nov 20

vs Aleksandar Rakic · Mar 21

vs Johnny Walker · Oct 21

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 22

KOvs Jamahal Hill · Aug 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jon JonesMetricThiago Santos

4.38

Strikes / min

3.72

2.24

Strikes absorbed / min

2.57

64%

Strike defense

53%

1.89

TDs / 15 min

0.88

95%

Takedown defense

65%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.14evenly matched on net striking+1.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jon JonesThiago Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jon Jones(10 fights)Thiago Santos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +79.2|Blue -79.2

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jon JonesTargetThiago Santos

By target zone

34% acc · 19%

Head

10% acc · 21%

84% acc · 27%

Body

33% acc · 16%

82% acc · 54%

Leg

51% acc · 63%

By position

65% acc · 93%

Distance

26% acc · 98%

67% acc · 7%

Clinch

14% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jon Jones rounds

even

Thiago Santos rounds

Round 1Thiago Santos edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jon Jones edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jon Jones edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Jon Jones edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Jon Jones edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 90

Sig Strikes

43 / 166

64%

Sig Str %

26.6%

59 / 90

Total Strikes

43 / 166

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Thiago Santos	11 / 26	11 / 26	0 / 0
1	Jon Jones	7 / 16	7 / 16	0 / 1
2	Thiago Santos	7 / 42	7 / 42	0 / 0
2	Jon Jones	11 / 17	11 / 17	0 / 0
3	Thiago Santos	6 / 33	6 / 33	0 / 0
3	Jon Jones	14 / 19	14 / 19	0 / 0
4	Jon Jones	11 / 17	11 / 17	0 / 0
4	Thiago Santos	8 / 28	8 / 28	0 / 0
5	Thiago Santos	11 / 37	11 / 37	0 / 0
5	Jon Jones	16 / 21	16 / 21	0 / 0

Jon Jones

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach84.0"

Fights19

Thiago Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24