Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Patrick Cummins enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Jan Blachowicz has 41pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Patrick CumminsL3 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · May 16W
vs Gian Villante · Jul 17L
vs Corey Anderson · Apr 18L
SUBvs Misha Cirkunov · Oct 18 Jan Blachowicz
oldest →L
SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Oct 21W
KOvs Aleksandar Rakic · May 22L
vs Alex Pereira · Jul 23L
vs Carlos Ulberg · Mar 25D
vs Bogdan Guskov · Dec 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Patrick CumminsMetricJan Blachowicz
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.91evenly matched on net striking+0.41
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Patrick CumminsJan Blachowicz
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Patrick Cummins(10 fights)Jan Blachowicz(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -120.6|Blue +120.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +112.0|Blue -112.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Patrick CumminsTargetJan Blachowicz
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Jan Blachowicz edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns1
Control1:28
Knockdowns0
31Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:40Control
1Knockdowns
Round 2Patrick Cummins edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns1
Control2:28
13Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:28Control
Round 3Patrick Cummins edged it
Sig. strikes36
Takedowns1
Control3:43
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
