Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matt Mitrione has 26pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Matt Mitrione has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Matt Mitrione (52.9%).
- Matt Mitrione has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kevin FergusonNo prior UFC fights on record.
Matt MitrioneL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Shawn Jordan · Mar 14W
KOvs Derrick Lewis · Sep 14W
KOvs Gabriel Gonzaga · Dec 14L
SUBvs Ben Rothwell · Jun 15L
KOvs Travis Browne · Jan 16 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kevin FergusonMetricMatt Mitrione
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.11Δ 1.87 — meaningful gap+0.76
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Kevin FergusonMatt Mitrione
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kevin Ferguson(1 fights)Matt Mitrione(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +134.0|Blue -134.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Kevin FergusonTargetMatt Mitrione
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Kevin Ferguson edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns2
Control2:59
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:49Control
Round 2Matt Mitrione edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:33
39Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:28Control
