Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Daniel Kelly enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Antonio Carlos Junior enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Daniel Kelly has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Kelly (53.5%).
- Antonio Carlos Junior has a 23cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Daniel KellyL3 streak
oldest →W
vs Chris Camozzi · Nov 16W
vs Rashad Evans · Mar 17L
KOvs Derek Brunson · Jun 17L
vs Elias Theodorou · Nov 17L
KOvs Tom Breese · May 18 Antonio Carlos JuniorL3 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Jack Marshman · Oct 17W
SUBvs Tim Boetsch · Apr 18L
vs Ian Heinisch · May 19L
vs Brad Tavares · Jan 21 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Daniel KellyMetricAntonio Carlos Junior
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.02evenly matched on net striking-0.19
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Daniel KellyAntonio Carlos Junior
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Daniel Kelly(10 fights)Antonio Carlos Junior(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -29.2|Blue +29.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -140.0|Blue +140.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Daniel KellyTargetAntonio Carlos Junior
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
2
Antonio Carlos Junior rounds
Round 1Antonio Carlos Junior edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:02
7Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:31Control
Round 2Antonio Carlos Junior edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:37
22Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:28Control
Round 3Daniel Kelly edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:35
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
