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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Paige VanZant won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1492

Elo1365

Paige VanZantvsBec RawlingsUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit · Saturday, August 27, 2016Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Paige VanZant won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:17

Style matchupPaige VanZant: Submission grapplervsBec Rawlings: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Bec Rawlings wins(63.9%)

Actual result: Paige VanZant wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bec Rawlings at +175 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bec Rawlings enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Bec Rawlings threatens submissions; Paige VanZant has lost 75% of fights by sub.
Bec Rawlings has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Bec Rawlings has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Paige VanZant

Red Corner

Bec Rawlings

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1492

Elo

1365

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'6"

165.1 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paige VanZant

oldest →

SUBvs Rose Namajunas · Dec 15

SUBvs Michelle Waterson · Dec 16

vs Jessica-Rose Clark · Jan 18

SUBvs Rachael Ostovich · Jan 19

SUBvs Amanda Ribas · Jul 20

latest

Bec RawlingsL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Lisa Ellis · May 15

DECvs Seohee Ham · Mar 16

vs Tecia Torres · Feb 17

vs Jessica-Rose Clark · Nov 17

vs Ashlee Evans-Smith · Apr 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paige VanZantMetricBec Rawlings

3.35

Strikes / min

4.48

2.62

Strikes absorbed / min

5.66

42%

Strike defense

57%

1.27

TDs / 15 min

0.71

34%

Takedown defense

68%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.73Δ 1.91 — meaningful gap-1.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paige VanZantBec Rawlings

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paige VanZant(9 fights)Bec Rawlings(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +127.7|Blue -127.7

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red +100.0|Blue -100.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paige VanZantTargetBec Rawlings

By target zone

37% acc · 56%

Head

37% acc · 71%

33% acc · 16%

Body

60% acc · 29%

54% acc · 28%

Leg

By position

33% acc · 60%

Distance

26% acc · 43%

43% acc · 12%

Clinch

71% acc · 57%

64% acc · 28%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paige VanZant rounds

even

Bec Rawlings rounds

Round 1Bec Rawlings edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:09

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Paige VanZant edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:05

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 63

Sig Strikes

21 / 51

46.5%

Sig Str %

21%

27 / 65

Total Strikes

30 / 60

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:14

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Bec Rawlings	21 / 50	30 / 59	0 / 0
1	Paige VanZant	16 / 48	17 / 49	0 / 0
2	Bec Rawlings	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0
2	Paige VanZant	9 / 15	10 / 16	0 / 0

Paige VanZant

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights9

Bec Rawlings

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights7