Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Ali AlQaisi has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Tony Kelley (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Ali AlQaisiNo prior UFC fights on record.
Tony Kelley
oldest →W
KOvs Randy Costa · Dec 21L
KOvs Adrian Yanez · Jun 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Ali AlQaisiMetricTony Kelley
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.46evenly matched on net striking+0.70
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Ali AlQaisiTony Kelley
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Ali AlQaisi(1 fights)Tony Kelley(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -2.7|Blue +2.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Ali AlQaisiTargetTony Kelley
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Ali AlQaisi edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns2
Control3:48
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:22Control
Round 2Ali AlQaisi edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns1
Control1:50
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:43Control
Round 3Ali AlQaisi edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns2
Control0:22
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:51Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
