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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Mateusz Rebecki won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1496

Elo1422

Mateusz RebeckivsKyle PrepolecUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, August 1, 2026Belgrade, Serbia

Official fight result

Mateusz Rebecki won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:41

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Mateusz Rebecki

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Mateusz Rebecki at -505 American odds · hypothetical only

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Style matchupMateusz Rebecki: WrestlervsKyle Prepolec: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mateusz Rebecki enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Kyle Prepolec enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Kyle Prepolec has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mateusz Rebecki

Red Corner

Kyle Prepolec

Blue Corner

-505

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+365

(22%)

1496

Elo

1422

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'10"

167.64 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mateusz RebeckiL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 24

vs Myktybek Orolbai · Oct 24

vs Chris Duncan · Aug 25

vs Ludovit Klein · Oct 25

SUBvs Grant Dawson · May 26

latest

Kyle PrepolecL4 streak

oldest →

vs Nordine Taleb · May 19

vs Austin Hubbard · Sep 19

SUBvs Benoit Saint Denis · May 25

KOvs Drew Dober · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mateusz RebeckiMetricKyle Prepolec

4.79

Strikes / min

3.25

4.36

Strikes absorbed / min

5.69

54%

Strike defense

48%

3.05

TDs / 15 min

0.00

53%

Takedown defense

45%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.43Δ 2.87 — meaningful gap-2.44

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mateusz Rebecki(9 fights)Kyle Prepolec(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +74.1|Blue -74.1

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -14.3|Blue +14.3

Layoff

Red -203.0|Blue +203.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mateusz RebeckiTargetKyle Prepolec

By target zone

76% acc · 95%

Head

9% acc · 50%

80% acc · 5%

Body

50% acc · 50%

Leg

By position

50% acc · 9%

Distance

8% acc · 50%

Clinch

81% acc · 91%

Ground

100% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mateusz Rebecki rounds

even

Kyle Prepolec rounds

Round 1Mateusz Rebecki edged it

Sig. strikes75

Takedowns1

Control4:04

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

75 / 98

Sig Strikes

2 / 13

76%

Sig Str %

15%

132 / 174

Total Strikes

11 / 23

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:04

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kyle Prepolec	2 / 13	11 / 23	0 / 0	0
1	Mateusz Rebecki	75 / 98	132 / 174	1 / 1	0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Mateusz Rebecki

Odds

-505

Market-implied probability

Mateusz Rebecki 80%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Mateusz Rebecki (model pick · research)$120

Kyle Prepolec$465

80% market-implied · model 58% (research) · vufc_v7_0_20260718_090638

🔒 Pick locked Jul 18, 2026, 9:29 AM UTC · never rewritten

Mateusz Rebecki

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights9

Kyle Prepolec

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights5